Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 9.094502 10.693695 12.443682 14.494531 16.825456 19.385560 22.403152
2025-02-09 6.685314 8.869647 11.503176 14.881851 19.068116 24.049392 30.386069
2025-02-16 4.984349 7.358946 10.473410 14.786065 20.521074 27.795285 37.614720
2025-02-23 3.741872 6.093810 9.421996 14.350361 21.313772 30.632000 43.839955
2025-03-02 2.823163 5.045193 8.420191 13.732559 21.655023 32.764574 49.186484
2025-03-09 2.272497 4.418114 7.889771 13.654050 22.658135 35.793070 55.898863
2025-03-16 1.819264 3.841218 7.318676 13.392030 23.296917 38.278856 61.949051
2025-03-23 1.620937 3.666710 7.366640 14.098738 25.462378 43.148555 71.789420
2025-03-30 1.377931 3.350786 7.109696 14.240925 26.702500 46.656443 79.765946
2025-04-06 1.164643 3.044043 6.813437 14.260210 27.711673 49.837799 87.399860
2025-04-13 0.981878 2.758241 6.505922 14.206976 28.567033 52.798520 94.828993
2025-04-20 0.930039 2.758355 6.763652 15.235440 31.401761 59.187514 108.130270
2025-04-27 0.844492 2.665596 6.829299 15.926389 33.737198 64.976542 120.938427
2025-05-04 0.760317 2.557737 6.848680 16.532200 35.978090 70.770187 134.129010
2025-05-11 0.644254 2.333638 6.571325 16.491245 36.985242 74.470578 143.981977
2025-05-18 0.523862 2.060055 6.128065 16.034461 37.129346 76.624062 151.267516
2025-05-25 0.414999 1.783345 5.621544 15.362455 36.763597 77.799275 156.867902
2025-06-01 0.350379 1.626992 5.389530 15.278494 37.581256 81.201431 166.599877
2025-06-08 0.288862 1.458118 5.089893 14.991004 37.934394 83.729429 174.855225
2025-06-15 0.270781 1.445408 5.222496 15.768725 40.639079 90.933293 192.057480
2025-06-22 0.236292 1.354918 5.113109 15.925175 41.983568 95.537587 204.601035
2025-06-29 0.203085 1.256102 4.959264 15.946414 43.022007 99.584992 216.272069
2025-07-06 0.172887 1.157096 4.784382 15.887891 43.868157 103.283987 227.437154